Copper prices are again in record territory, raising alarms. The metal rose to a record $14,858.50 per metric ton on September 10, up about 19% in 2026 and roughly 48% over the past year, fueling worries about the commodity, which is key to manufacturing, building, energy, and artificial intelligence infrastructure. Industrial demand is very high, and aging mines are struggling to keep up. Big Tech needs copper wiring for its data centers, and manufacturers use it in cars (especially electric vehicles), military equipment, electronics and other industries. Global copper-mine production declined 1.1% in the first half of 2026, with output falling sharply in several major producing countries, including the Democratic Republic of Congo, Chile, and Indonesia. The Democratic Republic of Congo has banned exports of copper concentrate and cobalt concentrate as it intensifies efforts to force domestic processing and retain more value from its mineral resources.
The threat of U.S. tariffs has led traders and merchants to send large volumes of refined copper into the United States, where prices have traded at a premium amid the prospect of new import duties and reduced inventories elsewhere. Last year, President Trump signed an order that imposed a 50% levy on certain semi-finished copper products. Refined copper was not part of the initial tariff because the Commerce Department was directed to research whether the metal should be subject to restrictions. Commerce was to report by June 30 on whether to impose a 15% tariff starting on January 1, 2027, that would increase to 30% in 2028, but no formal decision has been made yet.
U.S. officials worry that higher metal prices could raise manufacturing costs and offset the potential benefits of encouraging more domestic mining. The administration has been considering tariffs on refined copper as part of President Trump’s efforts to rebuild U.S. manufacturing and reduce reliance on foreign supplies of critical materials. The proposed tariffs could make imported copper more expensive and improve the economics of U.S. mining, smelting and refining projects, whose economics are challenging.
The U.S. imports roughly half of its copper needs each year and only has two operational copper smelters, owned by Freeport-McMoRan and Rio Tinto. Rio Tinto plans to open Arizona’s Resolution Copper mine by the mid-2030s but may need to export some of its copper concentrate because smelting in the United States is economically challenging. Copper concentrate must be smelted into a form called cathode that can be used to make wires and other products. Smelters make money by turning copper concentrate into metal for treatment and refining fees–charges that have turned negative in recent years due to a shortage of copper concentrate, meaning smelters are paying to process copper supplied to their plants. Possible policy solutions could be setting a price floor for the charges, imposing a tariff on copper cathode, or blocking exports of copper concentrate. The Resolution project is expected to produce more than 40 billion pounds (18.1 million metric tons) of copper over its life and supply more than a quarter of U.S. demand.
The Congo’s ban on copper concentrate took effect last month, though one-year export waivers may be granted in strategic circumstances. It mostly exports copper in the form of refined metal. In the first quarter of 2026, it exported 696,725 tons of copper cathodes, compared with 53,926 tons of copper concentrates containing 18,863 tons of copper metal.
S&P Global expects growth in the AI and defense sectors to boost global copper demand 50% by 2040, growing from 28 million metric tons to 42 million metric tons annually, according to its study titled Copper in the Age of AI: Challenges of Electrification. The study warns of a potential 10 million metric ton copper shortfall by 2040 without significant supply expansion. One major factor is rising electricity demand, which the study expects to grow at 2.5% annually in the United States through 2040. In China, with an electricity market more than double that of the United States, electricity consumption is expected to grow at 3.2% per year between now and 2040. In India, it is expected to grow at 4.2% per year.
Conclusion
Copper prices reached another record, rising about 19% so far in 2026 and up roughly 48% over the past year, fueling worries about the commodity. The metal is key to building, energy, manufacturing, and artificial intelligence infrastructure. One projection puts global copper demand up 50% by 2040. Last year, the Trump administration imposed a 50% tariff on global imports of some semifinished copper products, but has left refined copper for a later tariff decision. Merchants have been shipping refined copper for months to the United States, filling up inventories, which has been driving up the price. On top of that, the Congo has banned exports of copper concentrate as it intensifies efforts to force domestic processing and retain more value from its mineral resources. Copper remains essential as the world continues to electrify and become more technologically advanced.
