Brent crude oil, the international benchmark, fell below $115 a barrel after The New York Times and The Wall Street Journal reported that Vice President JD Vance had contacted a top Iranian political and military official to propose resuming comprehensive peace talks. The letter was reportedly sent at President Trump’s direction; currently, prices sit below $100 a barrel at $98.38. Vice President Vance is looking to see whether the two sides could find enough common ground to stop the possibility of a short, intense attack on Iran in the coming weeks. It comes after the Trump administration warned Gulf states that the United States was considering attacking Iran after the midterm elections, targeting Iranian infrastructure and nuclear sites.
Vice President JD Vance sent the letter to Iranian security chief Mohsen Rezaei, the secretary of Iran’s top security body, the Supreme National Security Council, and previously Iran’s longest-serving commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. The letter and subsequent discussions between U.S. and Iranian officials have focused on a possible negotiation framework, not the specifics of a peace proposal. Rezaei has said that Iran would not negotiate with the United States until specific core demands were met, and President Trump is content to let what he refers to as the “inevitable Iranian collapse” play out rather than be “played” by Iran. Vice President Vance is the lead U.S. negotiator and has flown abroad twice to meet with Iranian counterparts to seek an agreement to end the conflict.
Recently, Rezaei threatened that Iran could target the United Arab Emirates, which has largely escaped being attacked since late spring, as well as data centers and internet cables across the region. More recently, however, he met with security chiefs from Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Turkey in Tehran, as they sought de-escalation. Saudi Arabia is being attacked by an Iran-backed Houthi militia in Yemen. Most previous visits with Iran had involved diplomats rather than security chiefs.
The United States and Iran have held negotiations through mediators Qatar and Pakistan, but those talks have so far failed to break the deadlock. The United States wants nuclear concessions from Iran, while Iran is demanding immediate economic relief from enormous damage that has largely resulted from a U.S. blockade on Iranian ports. Tighter sanctions coupled with the naval blockade have cut off Iran’s oil sales for months, shut down much of its air links and cut into overland trade. The U.S. Navy also has a shuttle fleet escorting oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz, but oil prices still remained high, above $110 a barrel, despite more oil coming from the Middle East through the strait and via pipelines in the UAE and Saudi Arabia than before the conflict began in late February; with the conclusion of the midterms, prices are currently hovering just below $100 per barrel.
One reason for the elevated prices is that the United States told several Gulf Arab countries to be prepared for a short, intense military campaign after the midterm elections, hoping to degrade Iran’s strength and push it toward fruitful negotiations. The United States has also moved troops off bases in the Middle East where they were vulnerable to desperate attacks from Iran or its proxies. The Wall Street Journal reports that U.S. forces in the region have been restocking their munitions, and bomber aircraft and jet fighters are preparing for strikes. An additional aircraft-carrier strike group and Marine expeditionary unit are poised to join an armada of roughly 20 other warships operating in the Middle East, although some ships could also rotate out. The tempo of activity is up, as is preparedness.
The United States has pushed Iran to allow nuclear inspectors to return, but Iran’s leaders have resisted. One of the remaining sites that has raised concern and is under consideration for attack—Pickaxe Mountain—sits under hundreds of feet of rock. The subterranean complex is under construction near one of the country’s main nuclear installations.
According to The Wall Street Journal, Iran still has a stockpile of hundreds to thousands of missiles and has used the pause in fighting to shore up its defenses and prepare new plans for retaliation. The country is assembling new ballistic missiles from stockpiled parts, which has Israeli officials concerned about the speed at which it is rebuilding.
And, according to Reuters, Iran has created a secret network of military agencies with global reach to import at least $2 billion in hardware, explosives and heavy-duty trucks since January 2025, evading both the U.S. naval blockade and Western sanctions. The news agency reports that in the 18 months from January 2025 to June 2026 – including four months into this year’s war – just one of these agencies imported huge quantities of rocket propellants, explosives and weapons components that are used in making drones and missiles, as well as heavy-duty trucks that can serve as missile launchers. The hardware came in by land, sea and air – much of it recorded as originating in China, Russia and Germany. Iran has more than 5,000 of these agencies, Reuters reports.
Conclusion
Vice President JD Vance has contacted Iran’s security chief by letter concerning possible negotiations to ward off a potential attack by U.S. forces on Iranian infrastructure and nuclear sites after the mid-term elections. The letter and subsequent discussions between U.S. and Iranian officials have focused on a possible framework for fruitful negotiations, not the specifics of a peace proposal. Both the United States and Iran are gearing up for possible escalation, raising oil prices. But the announcement that Vice President Vance is seeking a diplomatic solution brought prices below $115 per barrel, and prices are now below $100 per barrel.
