Key Takeaways
Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney and others have been looking to diversify oil exports to countries other than the United States and lessen the country’s reliance on U.S. infrastructure.
It is now planning to build several pipelines to increase oil exports to Asia from its west coast and, eventually, to supply oil to Europe from the east.
In the past, Carney has been a champion of strict carbon limits and net-zero policies, but he is shifting his stance to improve Canada’s economy and security and to seek closer ties with China.
The change in Carney’s policies would also benefit the energy-producing province of Alberta, which is holding a referendum in October to determine whether it should further distance itself from Canada’s central government.
Canada announced plans to build a new oil pipeline from Alberta to the Pacific coast, which would increase Canada’s export capacity to Asia, reduce the country’s dependence on the United States, and strengthen national security. Construction of the 1-million-barrel-per-day pipeline is planned to begin in September 2027. Canada currently accesses the Asian oil market via the Trans Mountain pipeline, which runs along a route similar to that of the proposed new pipeline to be built by government-owned Trans Mountain Corp. In the past, environmental regulations have delayed pipeline construction, but Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney indicated that his country will not curb growth in the oil and gas sector to meet near-term emissions targets. He has also advocated for stronger ties between Canada and China and is allowing a limited number of China’s electric vehicles to enter Canada’s auto market.
Another Canadian pipeline project was announced by the premiers of Alberta and Ontario. The proposed 3,300-kilometer (2,051-mile) pipeline, called the Northern Shield Energy Corridor, would transport an estimated 500,000 barrels per day of oil from Western Canada to refineries in southern Ontario, with the potential to expand to 800,000 barrels per day. A feasibility study is to be completed by the end of this year and will estimate costs and provide commercialization options. A new cross-Canada oil pipeline would allow Canadian producers to avoid moving oil through the United States, as is done on Enbridge Inc.’s Line 5, which crosses the border in Ontario and connects with another line that moves oil to Quebec. The Northern Shield proposal is being discussed with Canada’s Major Projects Office, a federal entity that aims to expedite regulatory approvals. The provincial government is also beginning consultation with Indigenous communities. The pipeline could eventually allow for oil from Alberta to be exported to Europe. Ontario is also considering creating its own strategic petroleum reserve.
Canada is looking to add more than 2 million barrels per day of capacity to ship oil from Western Canada. That includes Enbridge Inc.’s Mainline expansion and the new Bridger conduit from Alberta to Wyoming, an expansion of the existing Trans Mountain system that would add 300,000 barrels per day of capacity.
Carney’s Emissions Forecast
According to Prime Minister Mark Carney, Canada’s greenhouse gas emissions will be higher in the coming years than previously projected, suggesting that the country’s near-term climate targets will likely not be reached. The comments indicate that cutting carbon dioxide emissions by 40% to 45% below 2005 levels by 2030, Canada’s commitment to the Paris climate agreement, will be difficult to achieve under current policies. Instead, he has emphasized a 2050 net-zero goal. He also indicated that, in his judgment, the climate plan under the Trudeau government was not sustainable over the long term. Carney has scrapped the consumer carbon price and agreed to weaken the trajectory of the industrial levy. All of these positions run counter to Carney’s long-held support for climate activism on behalf of governments and financial institutions, including during his leadership of the Bank of England and his establishment of a net-zero banking consortium prior to becoming Prime Minister.
Carney’s decisions come as the Alberta government is moving toward an October referendum on whether to remain in Canada or begin a process that could lead to separation—a process he views as akin to Brexit. Canada is the world’s fourth-largest oil producer, but most of its oil is currently sold to the United States.
A government report released in December 2025 showed that Canada’s best-case scenario would achieve only a 28% reduction in emissions from 2005 levels in 2030. In February, a study by the Canadian Climate Institute indicated that Canada is not on track to meet any of its climate targets — the 2026 interim emissions-reduction target to cut greenhouse gas emissions by 20% below 2005 levels, the 2030 Paris Climate Agreement commitment, and the long-term goal of net-zero emissions by 2050.
According to a recent Nanos Research Group poll, 55% of Canadians want the government to prioritize growing oil and gas exports, compared with 35% who prefer to meet its 2030 emissions target. The poll also found that 61% of Canadians support or somewhat support building a new pipeline to the northwest coast, up from 56% in December 2025.
Under the Ottawa-Alberta energy accord, Ottawa’s support for the new West Coast pipeline is contingent upon the building of a carbon capture and storage project that would offset some of the emissions impact from increased oilsands production. Carney also plans to prioritize sustainability, with Canada increasing its infrastructure through its electricity and nuclear energy strategies to double its national electrical capacity by 2050. Those strategies call for building out an interconnected grid powered by a mix of energy sources, including nuclear, hydro, oil and gas, and wind and solar.
Conclusion
Prime Minister Mark Carney and other Canadian politicians have been looking to diversify oil exports to other countries and lessen the country’s reliance on U.S. infrastructure. It plans to build several pipelines that would increase oil exports to Asia from its west coast and eventually enable exports to Europe. Prime Minister Mark Carney recognizes that Canada’s near-term emissions-reduction goals will not be met and that it is more important for the nation to support oil and gas projects in Alberta, which holds a referendum in October that could lead to its separation from Canada. Most Canadians support the move to prioritize oil and gas over prioritizing meeting emissions targets.
